2019 Power Situation Report

The country’s total peak demand¹ in 2019 was recorded at 15,581 MW, which is 799 MW or 5.4% higher than the 14,782 MW in 2018. As recorded by the System Operator, the Luzon grid contributed 11,344 MW or 72.8% of the total demand while Visayas and Mindanao contributed a share of 14.3% (2,224 MW) and 12.9% (2,013 MW), respectively. With reference to year 2018, the peak demand of Luzon increased by 468 MW or 4.3% while Visayas and Mindanao grew by 8.3% and 8.6%, respectively.

The Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) posted a 5.9% full-year growth for 2019, 0.3% below the previous year’s GDP, the slowest growth rate in eight years. In the 4th quarter of 2019, the GDP grew by 6.4%, but it was still not enough to meet the target economic growth which ranges from 6.0% to 6.5%. Nonetheless, historical data has shown that when the Philippines experienced an expanding economy or a positive GDP growth rate, that expansion was directly proportional to electricity consumption. Therefore, correlating the relationship between the two, a continuous GDP growth entailed a consistently rising demand in electricity.

The total electricity sales and consumption grew by 6.3%, with an absolute level of 106,041 GWh by the end of 2019 from 99,765 GWh of the previous year. As the rate of inflation slowed down to an average of 2.5% in 2019 from a noticeably higher rate of 5.2% in 2018, the country as expected experienced a boost in electricity consumption. The sector with the largest consumption remains to be residential (28.8%) followed by industrial (26.6%) and commercial (24.0%).

The industrial sector is the only sector whose annual growth rate took a downswing from its rapid increase of 7.9% in 2018 down to only 2.2% in 2019. One factor of the decline can be attributed to the slowdown in public construction at the start of 2019 as a result of the delayed approval of the Administration’s 2019 budget and the 45-day public works ban due to the 2019 National and Local Elections on 13 May 2019. Likewise, the reduction in public infrastructure spending, hence lagging in construction-related manufactures, and the weaker global economy resulted in a decrease in both volume and value of the manufacturing sector, only improving in the latter part of the year bolstered by the surge in public spending of 54% or ₱100.3 billion in September as state agencies expedited the implementation of major infrastructure projects as part of their catch-up measures. As a result, electricity sales and consumption of the industrial sector went up by 3.8% for the second half of the year.

On the other hand, the growth rate of the residential and commercial sectors remained persistent as the consumption increased by 8.1% and 6.1%, respectively, against last year’s growth rate of 5.5% for both sectors due to election-related activities and warmer temperature in the summer months. The continuous rise in global surface temperatures primarily contributed to the uptrend as heat indices hit dangerous levels especially in the months of April, May, and June. Moreover, the El Niño event throughout the year is a likely driver of the variation in consumption especially in households and commercial spaces e.g. an increase in consumption can be attributed to substantial utilization of cooling equipment.

“Others”, referring to public buildings, street lights, irrigation, agriculture, and “others not elsewhere classified”, continued to post a modest growth rate of 5.2% from 2,753 GWh in 2018 to 2,897 GWh in 2019.

Parallel to the Others sector, the utilities’ own-use for office and station use of the power plants, classified in Fig. 2 simply as “Own-Use”, grew significantly by 9.7% or 8,929 GWh from a previous diminution of 2.1% between 2018 and 2017. While this year, “Losses” from the generation, transmission, and distribution accounted for 9,994 GWh, the largest growth by sector with a 988 GWh or 11.0% increase from 2018 due to the testing and commissioning of various power plants in the country with total capacities of 2,002 MW (Luzon - 1,035 MW, Visayas - 371 MW and Mindanao - 596 MW).

¹ Total non-coincidental peak demand of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao grids

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2017 Power Supply and Demand Highlights (January-December 2017)

The country’s total peak demand in 2017 was recorded at 13,789 MW, which is 517 MW or 3.9% higher than the 13, 272 MW in 2016.   On the other hand, the total power supply, in terms of installed capacity, grew by 6.1% from 21,425 MW in 2016 to 22,730 MW in 2017. A total of 835 MW new capacities were added to the country’s supply base in 2017 which include coal-fired (630 MW), solar (127 MW), oil-based (77 MW), and hydropower (1 MW). In terms of share by grid, Luzon contributed 392 MW or 47%, Mindanao at 337 MW or 40% and Visayas at 106 MW or 3%. The year also saw the end of the constrained demand in Mindanao which grew by 6.5% or 107 MW from 1,653 MW in 2016 to 1,760 MW in 2017.

Philippine Power System continued to exhibit its resiliency and stakeholders’ unified actions in the onslaught of challenges in 2017.  Natural and man-made disasters hit some parts of the country, coupled with the continued concerns on forced outages of large power generation plants, as well as the transmission and distribution system.  The most notable of these is the 6.5 magnitude earthquake in the Visayas (Jaro, Leyte) which occurred in the second half of 2017, damaging geothermal power generation, transmission and distribution facilities, and resulted to the total loss of power in the provinces of Samar, Leyte, and Bohol. In Mindanao, the Marawi Siege led to the multiple partial blackout in the franchise area of the Lanao Del Sur Electric Cooperative (LASURECO) and total blackout in Marawi City.  In view of these incidents, the DOE initiatives to integrate in its plans, policies, and programs the energy resiliency, performance assessment of the power industry participants to improve energy security and reliability were very timely.

The DOE published power-related development plans (Power Development Plan 2016-2040; Distribution Development Plan 2016-2025; and Missionary Electrification Development Plan 2016-2020) which laid down the basic data and information of the Philippine Power System; power supply and demand outlook in grid and off-grid areas; and power sector roadmaps, policies, and programs for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon.  These serve as investors’ references in business development in the country.

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2016 Philippine Power Situation Report

2016 Philippine Electricity Demand-Supply Snapshot

The year 2016 is characterized by a significant increase in electricity consumption at 10% and peak demand at 8.7% attributed to several factors such as the increase in temperature and utilization of cooling equipment aggravated by the strong El Niño, the conduct of National and Local elections during the first half of the year, increase in economic growth, and entry of large power generating plants. The residential and industrial sectors remained the major drivers of electricity consumption in the country while Luzon remained the largest on a per grid basis.

Notably, the growth of the country’s supply base supplemented the increase in demand with the growth of total installed capacity at 14% from 18,765 MWh (2015) to 21,423 MWh (2016) majority coming from coal-fired power plants. Among the three grids, Mindanao has the highest recorded growth in terms of capacity at 31% from 2015-2016. From 2017-2025 a total of 5,068 MW committed projects are expected to come online. The DOE is continuously encouraging investments in power generation in view of the increasing peak demand which is expected to grow by more than triple* in 2040.

Along with supply security, the DOE also embarks on increasing the reliability and resiliency of the system. In 2016, several yellow and red alerts were declared by the system operator in Luzon and Visayas in addition to the major grid disturbances and load dropping incidents. Among the three major grids, Mindanao was adversely affected by El Niño which caused the decline in hydro power generation and curtailment of supply during the first half of 2016. The entry of large coal-fired power plants in Mindanao on the latter part of 2016 has addressed these supply shortfalls.

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January-June 2016 Power Situation Highlights

Philippine Power Demand-Supply Situation remained stable in the First Quarter of 2016 despite the onset of strong El Niño which generally resulted in increased peak demand levels in the three Grids. On the supply side, hydro capacities especially in Mindanao decreased. Several yellow and red alerts were declared by the system operator in Luzon and Visayas during the summer period of April to May 2016. However, the Energy Sector’s El Niño Mitigation Measures alongside with the preparation for the 09 May 2016 National and Local Elections stabilized the power situation during the critical periods. These measures include the activation of the Interruptible Load Program (ILP), ensuring minimal forced outages, management of power plant maintenance schedules and optimization of hydro capacities specifically in Mindanao.

Note: Due to rounding totals may not correspond to the sum of all figures

Definition of Terms

Installed Capacity

• maximum amount of electricity that the power plant can produce
• total manufacturer-rated capacity of equipment (as indicated in the nameplate)

Dependable Capacity

• load carrying ability of an electric power plant or a generating unit
• capacity that can be relied upon (monthly or annually)

Available Capacity

• current available capacity of an electric power plant
• ability of a power plant or a generating unit to produce electricity in a certain time period (hourly or daily)

Gross Generation - total generation of electricity by an electrical power plant

Peak Demand - maximum electrical demand occurring at any given period of time

Electricity Sales - actual energy sold by Distribution Utilities (DUs) to the residential, commercial, industrial and others sectors

Electricity Consumption - electricity sales plus the own-use consumption of power plant and systems loss

Committed Power Projects - private sector initiated power projects which have already secured financial closing

Indicative Power Projects - private sector initiated projects which have already applied for DOE Endorsement for the conduct of the System Impact Study (SIS) and yet to secure financial closing

Interruptible Load Program – a demand-side management program which allows big end-users to disconnect from the grid, use their own generators, and get an ERC-approved compensation

January - June 2016 Philippine Power Demand

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Power Situation Report 2015

A. INSTALLED, DEPENDABLE AND AVAILABLE CAPACITY

The Philippines' total installed generating capacity continued to grow by 4.6% from 17,944 MW in 2014 to 18,765 MW in 2015 equivalent to 821 MW increase. Coalfired power plants constitute the largest share in the installed and dependable capacity in 2015 at 32% and 34% respectively. Among renewable energy, hydro sources' share remained the highest at 19% majority of which comes from the Mindanao Grid. With the FIT incentives and continued support of the DOE and energy agencies and stakeholders, Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) such as wind and solar grew remarkably by 50.9% (144 MW increase) and 616.0% (142 MW increase) respectively from 2014 to 2015 as shown in Figure 1.

The percent share on a per Grid basis remained unchanged over the years. In 2015, almost 75% of the total capacities was in Luzon, while Visayas and Mindanao, with at par shares, comprised the remaining 25%. The commercial operation of power plants from different technologies provided the needed additional capacities for the Luzon Grid in 2015.

On the average, the actual available capacity during peak hours in Luzon, Visayas in Mindanao was 70% of the total installed capacity in the Philippines in 2015. Among other plant technologies, natural gas in Luzon provided the highest percentage of available capacity over installed capacity at 95%, followed by coal at 85% and geothermal at 70%. Whereas, wind and solar, due to variability and intermittency, provided the lowest available capacity in 2015 at only 22% and 33% of the total installed capacity.

For Visayas and Mindanao, coal-fired power plants delivered the highest available capacity at 91% and 89% respectively. The actual available capacity over installed capacity provided by wind and solar was the highest in Visayas at 89% and 72%. However, due to El Niño, the available capacity of hydro in Mindanao was limited to only 58% of the total hydro capacity.

As shown in Table 2, new power plants were commissioned in 2015 from different technologies such as the 135 MW South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation (SLTEC) Coal-Fired Power Plant Unit 1 in Batangas, 13.2 MW Sabangan Hydroelectric Power Plant (HEPP) in Mt. Province and 6 MW Sinoma Waste Heat Recovery System in Rizal. In addition, the 100 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant in Navotas was rehabilitated by Millennium Energy Inc. (MEI) and is currently embedded under the MERALCO franchise area.

On the second half of 2015, more RE-based plants from wind, biomass and solar went online totaling to 265 MW such as the 54 MW Alternergy Wind Farm in Pililia, Rizal, 20 MW Isabela Biomass Energy Corporation (IBEC) Bagasse-Fired Power Plant, and 13 MW Bataan 2020 Rice Husk-Fired Power Plant. There were also solar photovoltaic (PV) farms which have been operational such as the 10 MW Phase 1 and 13.1 MW Phase 2 of Raslag Corporation Solar Farm in Pampanga, 41.3 MW Majestic Solar Rooftop in Cavite, 4 MW Burgos Solar Farm in Ilocos Norte, and the 1.5 MW rooftop-installed solar panels of Solar Philippines which is located at SM North EDSA.

On the other hand, Visayas’ net increase in capacity was the smallest compared to the two Grids. Based on Table 3, newly operational RE plants coming from biomass, wind, and solar provided additional 200 MW in the installed capacity and 170 MW in the dependable capacity. However, due to the decommissioning of Salcon’s Cebu Thermal Power Plant (TPP), the total installed and dependable capacity of coal declined in 2015. The units of Cebu Land-Based Gas Turbine of SPC Island Power Corporation is currently under preservation and have not provided power to the grid during the past years which contributed to the 80 MW drop in dependable capacity coming from oil-based sources in 2015. On the same manner, the non-operation of DESCO Inc.’s Natural Gas Power Plant due to non-availability of fuel and the adjustments in capacities of Unified Leyte Geothermal Power Plants also decreased the dependable capacity of the Visayas Grid.

As shown in Table 4, in 2015, the capacities in Mindanao inched up significantly compared to previous years after the entry of new power plants coming from base-load coal (150 MW Therma South Coal Unit 1), oil (20.9 MW Peak Power Soccsargen, 5.9 MW Peak Power ASELCO, and 7.8 MW King Energy - Maramag) and solar (12.5 MW Kirahon Solar Farm and 6.2 MW Centralla Solar Farm). On the other hand, the dependable capacity of hydro declined by 3 MW due to deratings.

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